Russian cyberattacks, drone raids, and numerous acts of sabotage against NATO countries may be an attempt to divert attention from the military situation in Ukraine. Russia, after all, is facing more and more problems.
U.S. Senator John McCain once said that Russia is “a giant gas station masquerading as a state.” Today it turns out that this station doesn’t have fuel even for Russians. Of course, Kremlin media try to explain shortages at stations by the actions of unscrupulous speculators and excessive demand, and they don’t mention that the fuel crisis is nonetheless the result of Ukrainian attacks on refineries, pumping stations, and fuel depots. “The Russian fuel industry has been systematically destroyed since 2023. Unfortunately, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden forced a halt to these attacks for fear of rising fuel prices before the elections. Now the Ukrainians have the green light to destroy Russia’s energy infrastructure and are doing so very effectively,” says the editor at the military portal Defence24.pl.
Much indicates that Kyiv’s current actions are coordinated with the White House. It suffices to note that U.S. President Donald Trump stated at the end of September that Putin and Russia have enormous economic troubles and the time has come for Ukraine to act. “When the residents of Moscow and all the great cities, towns, and neighbourhoods across Russia learn what is really happening in this war, that it is practically impossible for them to get gasoline because of the long lines that are forming, (…) that most of the money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has great spirit (…), Ukraine will be able to take back its country in its original form, and who knows, maybe even go further!” Trump emphasized in a post on the Truth Social platform.
Initiative on Kyiv’s side
After many long months of Russian advantage on the battlefield, the Ukrainians have now gained the upper hand because they have found their enemy’s weak points. Time will tell how painful this fuel crisis will be, but for now the situation is very serious, as the oil industry has lost about 40% of its processing capacity. There are also problems in the energy sector, because the Ukrainians are attacking power plants as well as factories producing turbines for combined heat-and-power plants located 2,500 km from their territory. Sanctions, in turn, mean that the Russians cannot properly service the turbines they once ordered from Western corporations. Already there is talk of a systemic energy shortfall of about 25%. “This means that Russians will feel the effects of the war with Ukraine not only through lines at gas stations, but also through a growing crisis in the power system and temporary power outages,” explains an energy-sector analyst.
The Russian authorities have introduced a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel and announced that the missing fuel will be imported, for example, from North Korea and Singapore. Russians are beginning to feel the burden of the war more and more, and the country’s authorities must cope with a growing budget deficit; they intend to raise taxes, cut public spending, and are selling off gold reserves. The current situation clearly shows that Kyiv’s military actions are far more effective than Moscow’s moves. “What is new is that the Ukrainians have escalated to a new level, effectively striking targets deep inside Russia. The growing strength and effectiveness of attacks on Russia’s refining, energy, and chemical industries shows that Kyiv is seizing the operational initiative on several axes. Of course, the Russians are learning, and it is unknown how long this Ukrainian advantage will last,” emphasise Strategy & Future.
We are in a state of war
The fuel crisis is a worry for the governors of Russia’s regions and the energy ministry, but this problem does not reach the main decision-maker in the Kremlin. Although Russians are beginning to feel the burden of the war more and more, in his speeches Putin pretends that everything is going his way and threatens another war with NATO. He announced the largest draft in years so that the Russian Federation’s army reaches the planned 1.5 million soldiers. “Putin’s recent statements in Sochi indicate that he is quite relaxed, because he sees a very wide array of options for escalating threats against Western Europe. This shows that the Russians will continue to use their capacity for sabotage and provocation against NATO,” says Mark Budzisz, expert on Russia and post-Soviet areas at the Institute of Freedom Foundation.
Recently Putin tested NATO’s reaction to a drone attack on Poland and violations of the airspace of the Baltic states. He demonstrated his capabilities in Denmark and Germany, where drones disrupted operations at international airports. Europe is, for now, showing its helplessness, and U.S. responses to Russia’s provocative actions against NATO are too weak. This picture encourages Putin to further escalate actions against the West, to divert attention from his domestic problems and the lack of results in the war in Ukraine. It is much easier for him to score a propaganda success by sowing fear in European countries than to achieve any military objective in Ukraine. “We in Europe must realize that we are in a state of war with Russia. Moscow keeps communicating this to us, but we refuse to acknowledge it. Russia wants to wear us down, frighten us, and demoralize us so that we stop supporting Ukraine and lift sanctions. And when we do that, new threats and further, even greater demands will appear,” notes a Russia analyst at the Centre for Eastern Studies.
Putin threatens Poland
In Russia’s war narrative, the issue of war with Poland and all of NATO is appearing more and more often. A dozen or so months ago former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev devoted a very long text arguing that the ideal model of coexistence between the two nations was the era of the People’s Republic of Poland, when Warsaw was colonized by Moscow. Recently the topic of Poland has been taken up even by Vladimir Putin himself. He blamed the outbreak of World War II on the “irresponsible” policy of the authorities of the Second Polish Republic, who did not want to delineate a corridor to Gdańsk. This is a continuation of a series of his statements from 2019, when he could not refrain from citing examples from Polish history. At that time he accused Poles, Ukrainians, and Lithuanians of collaborating with the Nazis in the Holocaust, which served as a prelude to his policy of “denazification” of, first and foremost, the authorities in Kyiv. That plan did not work out, because first the pandemic delayed the war, and after 2022 the Russians bogged down in Ukraine. Why are Putin and his circle returning to this narrative now?
The director of the Mieroszewski Centre, believes that Poland is the most important and most inconvenient country for the Kremlin in the entire region. Putin wanted to tell us that if Poland’s authorities do not heed his suggestions, they will share the fate of the Second Polish Republic in 1939. He indicated that smaller states in the region should respect Moscow’s imperial plans and accept this asymmetry, rather than punching above their weight. “This speech shows us that Poland plays an important role both in Kremlin policy and in ordinary Russian mentality. Putin even perceives Poland’s aspirations to play an important role in Europe,” he explains.
The fact that the Russian authorities appreciate Poland in terms of economic development and growing influence in Europe does not have to mean anything good. Recently they have had drone attacks, attempts at sabotage on the railways, and even dangerous moves near the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline. We also know that the Polish Armed Forces fend off hundreds of cyberattacks daily, and Polish services thwarted the downing of a cargo aircraft. Recently the Kremlin announced that Poland would be attacked with Russian drones by Ukrainians. The Institute for the Study of War warns that it is Russia that is planning a false-flag attack on Polish infrastructure to blame the Ukrainians. Nothing has changed for centuries in Polish-Russian relations, because Moscow, as usual, is trying to vassalize Warsaw through blackmail and sowing fear – that is, to force submission and obedience – which Poland cannot accept.
Tony Wood